We know that Mrs Clinton's chances increase to the extent that our Latino citizens vote. We also know that a recent media narrative suggests that enthusiasm for her in Spanish-speaking communities has lagged. This may have changed and perhaps as a result of Monday night's debate. 

ElectoralVote, a poll aggregation site (EV itself does not conduct polls.), like a number of other excellent sites, reports national and state polling results several times daily, based on the combined results of ongoing polling from many polling organizations. Aggregation sites also rate various polling organizations based on past performance, whether or not they sample various demographics equally, and based on whether or not pollsters have or have had connections with political organizations. Perhaps the most well known aggregator is Nate Silver's 538.com. 

ElectoralVote notes this morning that

"...there has been a sizable increase in the number of [Google] searches for information about voter registration. The lion's share of those searches come from heavily Latino markets in Texas, California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida. Some of these areas have, historically, had the lowest rates of voter participation in the country before 2016. Needless to say, this is indirect evidence, but in the past a correlation between Google searches and actual registrations has been documented. So, there is a good chance that Donald Trump's debate performance—highlighted by his attacks on "Miss Housekeeping" Alicia Machado—brought new Latino voters into the Democratic fold."

There's no way of knowing, now, whether or not this will continue and whether or not it will affect the November results. Given Mr Trump's continuing tweet tirades about Ms Machado, as late as this morning, the possibility seems increasingly plausible. Florida, Arizona, Texas, California, and Nevada account for 139 electoral votes. 


Views: 96

Comment by Jonathan Wolfman on September 30, 2016 at 5:02am

Excellent weekend to you all. 

Comment by koshersalaami on September 30, 2016 at 5:14am

Very cool. Do we think his actions regarding Ms. Machado are driving this?

if the roles were reversed, he'd start a rumor that Hillary was going to build a wall around Ms. Machado and make her pay for it.

Comment by Jonathan Wolfman on September 30, 2016 at 5:18am

Now that's funny!    

EV sees a temporal connection, of course, tho cause/effect is not established. It doesn't, to me, seem unwarranted to think there may be a link.

Comment by JMac1949 Today on September 30, 2016 at 6:14am

Trump is invested in white men and old white women who hate HRC.  I expect he'll lose in November.  R&L

Comment by Jonathan Wolfman on September 30, 2016 at 6:28am

I do hope so.

Comment by Ron Powell on September 30, 2016 at 7:13am

Muchas gracias mi amigo...

Comment by Jonathan Wolfman on September 30, 2016 at 7:13am

de nada

Comment by koshersalaami on September 30, 2016 at 8:03am

Yes, that's who Trump is invested in, but there are a lot of them and we need to get enough people to vote in such a way as they are offset, which does not include Libertarian or Green Presidential candidates. And a lot of young people don't like Hillary, though I'm not sure how substantial their objections are. Personally, I'm more comfortable supporting Hillary in 2016 than I was supporting Obama in 2012, and I went door to door for Obama in 2012 because Romney scared me. Not like Trump does, of course. 

Comment by nerd cred on September 30, 2016 at 10:51am

This is what he focuses on - spent the whole day on it yesterday and at 2 this morning was tweeting smears about her. There's so much wrong with this guy.

Comment by Zanelle on September 30, 2016 at 12:14pm

People really love that he was tweeting about the porn films of the former Miss Universe at 3am.  His base laps this stuff up.  I hope the Cuban embargo thing with him 1) gets trial time and 2) takes away Florida.   

This election is too funny.  I watch the View....it is intense and I think it has a big influence on the country....women rock.


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