Politics as the Unusual: Some Interesting Numbers for the Bern and HRC

NPR reported some interesting numbers about how the Democratic Presidential campaign may play out between now and the convention: Despite the math, Bernie Sanders has already won.

"Sanders won with 82 percent in Alaska, 70 percent in Hawaii and 72 percent in Washington. That Washington margin was even bigger than the Sanders campaign expected — and significant, because there are 101 delegates up for grabs there.

Depending on the outcome of remaining primary elections and caucuses, Bernie Sanders could beat the math of the inevitable nomination of Hillary Clinton.  Although it is a convoluted path, the key to his potential victory is two fold: First he has to manage 55-65% of the votes to achieve a overall plurality in the popular vote, particularly in California's June 7th Primary:

Then the Super delegates pledged to HRC would be free to shift their votes to Sanders at the convention.  Follow the link to NPR to read the details.  This is a long shot but who'd have thunk that Bernie Sanders has collected the money and votes this deep into the campaign, and who could have predicted Trump's dominance in the Republican contest??

BTW: A recent NBC poll shows Sanders doing better than HRC against Donald Trump in the general election:

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Comment by koshersalaami on March 28, 2016 at 8:27pm
Comment by Mimetalker on March 28, 2016 at 9:22pm

Very interesting...

Comment by moki ikom on March 29, 2016 at 3:07am

HRC and Trump are two sides of the same morally and fiscally bankrupt currency, Bernie is a cure.

Comment by Jonathan Wolfman on March 29, 2016 at 5:02am

As I've shared on your posts, I don't think these mean much (any head-to-head polling, any candidates) until at least late August, when the positive messages and negatives and smears genuinely begin to take hold among a great numbers of voters.

Comment by JMac1949 Today on March 29, 2016 at 6:43am

Kosh, Mime, moki and Jon, thanks for reading and commenting.  I hope it's Bernie who goes up against Trump.

Comment by Jonathan Wolfman on March 29, 2016 at 8:42am

If he does, he'll likely win. 

Comment by Zanelle on March 29, 2016 at 8:48am

Sure interesting.  Not over till the fat lady sings tho.

Comment by Dandy Lion on March 30, 2016 at 8:44pm

As a Canuck I'm fairly indifferent between Sanders and Clinton.  Whoever can best beat the Repubs would be my choice.  I'm skeptical of the favourable Sanders polls because he has yet to feel the full force of the right-wing attack machine.  Hillary has gone through that and those who are with her have heard it all before.

Comment by JMac1949 Today on March 30, 2016 at 8:53pm

Thanks for reading and commenting one and all.  In the next big primary state Wisconsin the NYT reports "... Senator Bernie Sanders has an edge over Hillary Clinton, 49 percent to 45 percent, a widening of a one-point lead by Mr. Sanders in February, but within the poll’s margin of error..."

If this continues to break toward Bernie, on June 7th I may have a chance to cast the first primary vote in over 30 years that might make some difference in the outcome of a presidential campaign... starting to "Feel the Bern."

Comment by Dalriadane on April 1, 2016 at 5:49am

I keep sending my contributions to the Bernie campaign and take pause to pray as it is amazing he's come this far with all the media manipulation and political b.s. that piles up.  I figure it is the moral equivalent to tithing as I don't go to church.  Could I pay off bills a bit quicker, sure, but hey, what is money anway?


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