Bust Your Stein!!

During last night's MSNBC pundit marathon, one of them off-camera announced that Jill Stein had come into view. There, again, was the still photo from the 2015 RT meet with Putin and Flynn, with Stein's profile in the foreground. Today, there's real news. The main point made by the pundit was that Stein cost Hillary the election, since the difference between Hillary and Orange Julius Caesar in the three Blue states (PA, MI, WI) was less than Stein's votes. Well, yes. But...

Not quite. Here's the Wiki table of the results. Note that Johnson polled about 3 times as many votes as Stein nationally and he got more votes than she did in each state. The net (or gross, as you prefer) is that Trump got ~63,000,000 and NotTrump got ~71,000,000. And most of that difference was Johnson+Stein (Johnson alone eclipsed Hillary's margin), not Hillary.

What would have happened if there were no Johnson or Stein? As a first approximation, let's assume that Johnson voters would vote for Orange Julius Caesar and Stein for Hillary. Some of both would have not voted, naturally, but this is a speculative thought experiment.

So far as the Three Blue States go, yes, Stein "took" enough away from Hillary to make up the difference with Orange Julius Caesar. But, of course, Johnson polled about 3 times the vote as Stein in those states, so having no third-party votes wouldn't have changed the result.

The following states would have flipped.

To Orange Julius Caesar:
Colorado
Maine (at-lg.)
Minnesota
Nevada
New Hampshire

To Hillary:
none

In the end, Hillary was, net, the benficiary of third-party, just not enough.

Views: 118

Comment by Safe Bet's Amy on December 19, 2017 at 12:32pm

"let's assume that Johnson voters would vote for Orange Julius Caesar and Stein for Hillary."

I'm pretty much the atypical Stein/GP voter.  I am WAAAAY on the non-militant conservative side from the vast majority of them.  So, no, let's not assume that.  Stein/GP voters are Stein/GP voters BECAUSE they abhor people like Hillary.  To assume that virtually any of US would ever vote for her establishment, corporately owned, elitist ass is stickily from Bizarro world.

As for Stein being investigated?  You do realize that:

a.) she is being investigated AFTER everyone but Johnson, right?  Trump, Sanders and Clinton investigations are way advanced already.  This tells me that this is either a "Lets check everybody" thing or a Republican "lets take a swat at everyone on the left" thing (which leads me to b.)...

b.) Everyone else has been "investigated" by the Department of Justice.  Stein is being "investigated" by the Senate Intelligence Committee.  The SIC is comprised of noteworthy right wing partisan hacks like Risch, Rubio, Blunt, Lankford, Cotton & Cornyn and equally renowned stealth right wing partisan Clintonistas as Feinstein, Wyden, Heinrich, King, Manchin & Harris.  Both side of that committee hates progressives and will do anything to distract from THEIR people's investigations.

P.S.  Good point about the on-going BS about Hillary losing because of the GP.  Establishment Democrats somehow believe that they own our votes and sure get pissy when we don't give them to them.

Comment by Foolish Monkey on December 19, 2017 at 12:59pm

what would have happened if the democrats would have kept their duplicitous little hands out of the primary and viola! no hillary?  orange asshole would be back in moscow caging for ruples. 

Comment by Tom Cordle on December 19, 2017 at 11:46pm

Hypotheticals are fun, but ultimately pointless, since there's absolutely no way of knowing how any of those third party votes would have been distributed in a strict two=party scenario. I suspect the bulk of the Jill Stein's votes would have gone to Hillary, but as Amy makes clear, there would have been a substantial number of Stein voters who would have just stayed home. But that said, I think it's safe to say few, if any, Stein voters would have voted for Trump.

As for Johnson, I'm guessing a much larger percentage of those voters would have sat this one out. Among my circle of Libertarian leaning friends and relatives – an admittedly small sample, most would have voted for Hillary rather than Trump – though they would have had to hold their nose to do so.

But as I said, at the outset, all that speculation amounts to a parlor game and nothing more. There are a few questions worth pondering, when it comes to the 2018 presidential election and beyond:

(1) Why do we still have an Electoral College, if it's not going to do the job it was intended to do, which is save us from the idiots among us?

(2) Why did roughly 90 million voters not even bother to get off their asses and vote?

(3) Why do so many so obviously vote against their own interests (and anyone who doubts that need only look to the Tax Rape bill)?

(4) Last, and most importantly, how much longer can democracy survive such monumental ignorance and indifference?

Comment by Robert Young on December 20, 2017 at 6:27am

"As for Johnson, I'm guessing a much larger percentage of those voters would have sat this one out. "

that's where we disagree.  Trump, certainly as he has done vs. what he said during the campaign, is as radical as Johnson.  Johnson is a card caring Libertarian, while Trump is a card caring Fascist, and there's only an index card's worth of difference between them.  in any case, since the vote was 3-to-1 for Johnson, the net "come to Jesus" votes absent those two would have gone to Trump.

[1] - because the South will rise again.  it will only go away if, somehow, the Educated Elite vote enough, and in enough South states to remove it.  not in our lifetimes.  Minority Rule is baked in for some generations.

[2] - in some (many?) developed countries, voting is mandatory: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/22-countries-voting-mandatory

[3] - read Thomas Frank's "What's the Matter with Kansas?" the essence is a) they're stupid and b) all they care about is Guns, God, and Abortion.  put them in dire poverty doesn't register.

[5] - it's already lost.

Comment by Safe Bet's Amy on December 20, 2017 at 6:51am

"I suspect the bulk of the Jill Stein's votes would have gone to Hillary, but as Amy makes clear, there would have been a substantial number of Stein voters who would have just stayed home."

Do you have ANY factual basis for your beliefs, Tom?  

Did you talk to many GP voters about this?  Did you get involved in any GP Platform Caucuses??  Do you have ANYTHING to support your "suspicions" other than your Clintonista biased hatred of progressives and your strong desire to "blame" anyone other than the DNC and Hillary herself for her loss?

I HAVE talked to many GP voters.  I did get involved with GP Platform Caucuses.  I knocked on doors and walked the driveways to meet prospective GP voters and I am telling you that you are dead wrong based on actual, real world experiences.  #DEMEXIT is more than just a cute phrase, dude...  It is what was in OUR minds when we voted for Stein and would have been in our mind when we voted for ANYBODY other than your preferred Duopoly candidates.

 

Comment by Robert Young on December 20, 2017 at 7:01am

"voted for ANYBODY other than your preferred Duopoly candidates."

I guess that means your asserting that repeal of ACA and passing the Leona Helmsley Memorial Tax Cut and gutting EPA and State and the rest of the agencies and dumping Paris and not releasing tax returns and on and on and on would have happened under Hillary??  really?????

Comment by koshersalaami on December 20, 2017 at 7:43am

Robert,

Thank you for this post. 

Why does anyone think what Stein did anywhere is significant? She is so politically/governmentally inexperienced she deserves a pass. She might as well have a political Learners Permit. The only time she's been elected to public office her entire vote total, not her margin, her total, was well below a thousand votes. As you can imagine, the office was exceedingly local. Nor does she have significant leadership experience in non-elected government or the private sector. I'm amazed the Senate would waste their time and our money on this. She has nothing but Hillary hatred to thank for how far she got. 

I will now step aside and allow you guys to fight about lesser evilism. 

Comment by Safe Bet's Amy on December 20, 2017 at 8:39am

"I guess that means your asserting that repeal of ACA and passing the Leona Helmsley Memorial Tax Cut and gutting EPA and State and the rest of the agencies and dumping Paris and not releasing tax returns and on and on and on would have happened under Hillary??  really?????"

Awwwwww....  did I hurt your poor little Clintonista feeling with my big mean facts?  

I must have to make you toss up that big of a strawman (BTW, are YOU saying that if Hillary and the DNC hadn't colluded against Sanders [you know...  the guy who actually polled better than Trump?] that "repeal of ACA and passing the Leona Helmsley Memorial Tax Cut and gutting EPA and State and the rest of the agencies and dumping Paris and not releasing tax returns and on and on and on would have happened"????) and for good 'ol Kosher "I voted for Bernie in the Primaries" Baloney to keep on with his stealth Clintonista BS.

Comment by koshersalaami on December 20, 2017 at 9:44am

Oh please, stop with the conspiracy theory nonsense. If I voted for Hillary I'd just own it. I was tempted to and I certainly think more of her than you do, but ultimately I couldn't not support the guy who was backing the economic viewpoint I've presented here since (and including) my first post and I didn't get a serious indication from Hillary that she got it, leading me to ultimately agree with Reich's assessment that she was a candidate for the last election. 

If you're going to call me a liar and a stealth anything, please base it on something other than your gut. I don't bother being stealthy about my political viewpoints - it serves no purpose, it's counterproductive, and I'm a bit too OCD to go there even if I had that inclination. If you want to know what I think, reading between the lines isn't nearly as effective as reading the lines. 

I don't recall seeing you when I filled out my ballot. If you'd been present, you wouldn't be saying this. 

Comment by Robert Young on December 20, 2017 at 9:51am

once again:  are you asserting that there was/is no difference between Republicans (esp. the Tea Baggers that currently control it) and Democrats???  really???  they all jumped on the repeal ACA and pass Leona and gut EPA and State and such band wagon in January?  what's your evidence?  true facts, btw, not alternative ones.  we'll all wait.

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