My worry about Nate Silver's election prediction

In today's news, Nate Silver, eminent and historically accurate election prognosticator, says the current odds in the Presidential election are 79% Hillary, 20% Trump, with recent trends favoring Hillary. In other words, at the moment her lead is likely to grow. Those of us who are not Hillary haters might consider that good news, but I think it contains a risk.

What I'm worried about is the Republican convention. Trump earned his delegates, and disenfranchising the plurality of Republican voters by nominating someone else is extremely risky, I'd have been tempted at one point to consider it suicidal. The question is: If Trump's poll numbers drop much more, will the Republican leadership pull the plug and say "What have we got to lose?"

I'm not sure the Republicans have a viable candidate. At this point, I'd say their best bet would be Kasich. He doesn't have high negatives. He might not appeal to the purists, but we're no longer in the primaries and purists matter less than moderates in a general election.

We could be looking at another twist. The election process hasn't exactly been expected so far; there's nothing to say that we aren't in for more surprises.

Views: 375

Comment by Arthur James on June 29, 2016 at 2:01pm

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`
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Comment by Safe Bet's Amy on June 29, 2016 at 2:07pm

**ahem**

"A new Quinnipiac University poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Trump by just two points, 42% to 40%, a much closer race than other recent surveys have shown."

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/29/politics/quinnipiac-poll-hillary-clin...

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/nation...

Comment by Arthur James on June 29, 2016 at 2:24pm

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Comment by Jonathan Wolfman on June 29, 2016 at 2:25pm

I doubt poll numbers in 19 days will move that Party to ditch Trump. The poll numbers are such that people may pick and choose their poll results. Nor do I think they can find someone to be the fall-guy. And the process that would enable the move is rule-laden and fraught, at best, for many reasons. Too, at this point, Mr Trump would keep on going, as an Indy, and that would result in a worse November result for Rs than a head-to-head w HRC. 

Comment by nerd cred on June 29, 2016 at 2:31pm

Even Hillary haters should feel good about that news and if they don't it's because they're just idiots - which is what it is to think she = Trump.

With the great number of R candidates in the primary, do we know whether there were more Trump votes than total "not Trump"? Or are there more pro-trump than hate-trump? That might mitigate the negative reaction to a coup.

I imagine you've heard about the woman from Colo - Kendall Unruh I think is her name. She is driving a movement to include a "conscience" clause in the RNC rules to free delegates to, such an R thing, vote their consciences. There is an actual legal argument that it's unconstitutional to bind any vote. She's articulate and seems smart and level-headed but I have to refer you to constant prime-time viewing of MSNBC to know more detail as I tend to let it wash around me without grabbing many details.

Right now there's a guy on MSNBC named Lonergan from an anti-trump PAC who also seems sort of not crazy. He's saying Trump is very much all about big government. (So true.)

I will not be at all surprised if Trump isn't the candidate in the end. The R establishment are not at all stupid and not averse to manipulation - see Cheney picking himself as VP and installing Rumsfeld etc to run the show. The question then becomes, if not Trump, who? Oh, I know, Cheney. (laughing not laughing)

Comment by nerd cred on June 29, 2016 at 2:34pm

Quinnipiac is the shittiest pollster. Up against Nate Silver - I need a serious eyeroll symbol - do people generally recognize the old @@ from AOL as an eyeroll? If so @@. If not:

to Amy's comment.

Comment by Jonathan Wolfman on June 29, 2016 at 2:34pm

Kosh   do you really think that were the Party and/or insurgent grps to take the nomination from Mr Trump that he'd go home and not continue? I don't. The sole reason he might not would be if he could not get on state ballots at this late date as an Independent.

Comment by Jonathan Wolfman on June 29, 2016 at 2:39pm

Cred   if they pull a coup they'll want Ryan. The only reason they wouldn't get that Ultimate Company-Man is if Ryan calculates he'd be dead in 2020 if he ran now against both HRC and Mr Trump. 

Comment by koshersalaami on June 29, 2016 at 2:45pm
True. If Trump goes it alone, assuming he gets on ballots, the GOP is in even more trouble.
Comment by nerd cred on June 29, 2016 at 2:49pm

See, that's how my mind works - it just wants to block Ryan out whenever possible!

I don't disagree at all, Jon. Trump is very dependent on the RNC now, though. He doesn't have the infrastructure or the money to mount a viable run without them. And I don't care what he says, he'll not be paying his own way. (As he hasn't so far.) All he needs is a story to tell himself that allows him to pull out. That should be possible because 1) he's demonstrated that nothing's too crazy for him to believe and 2) he can come up with really crazy stories to tell.

If they run Ryan, I fear there's a good chance they'd win and that gives me a headache so I'm going outside and planting flowers on a stump.

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