Another in another on-going series of self-congratulations: recall missives discussing both the Fed's unloading of Treasuries and any hint of an organic interest rate inversion? The latter can be enhanced by the former, but, as organic says, can happen out in the real economy all by its lonesome. The result of the former is to push supply of Treasuries, thus dropping the auction price of new issues, and concurrently upping the resulting interest rate. Since these are long term (Treasuries are in various maturities) rates, the Fed can then raise the short term rate(s) it sorta-kinda manages.

The upshot, of course, is that the 1% and corporations already sitting on their piles of moolah doing nothing but buying Treasuries (all that talk of investing for Amerika is just wind, of course) can get back to enjoying the 5% to 10% return on their idle cash. Mnuchin might then be able to afford a charter plane now and again, which seems to be an unwarranted burden in these days of his penury.

Well, some mainstream pundits are finally catching on to the scam.

But bond traders are apparently worried: The Treasury yield curve has flattened to a level that marked the start of the last two recessions. This suggests that the fixed-income market -- which is much larger and arguably more reliable than stocks in the pricing of macroeconomic developments -- is sniffing out trouble ahead for the economy.

Macro data is largely sample based, so the propaganists always have the option(!) to yell, "fake news!!". But careful sampling works. Despite the 77,900 stupid shitkickers in hick counties in three states, the polls got the macro numbers right in 2016: Clinton won by a wide margin. The error was way, way below the noise floor; only the rabidness of the Electoral College, and Russian foreign aid, put Donald J. Quisling on his throne.

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