A Comment on SOLON to my previous article by koshersalaami on February 1, 2017 at 5:38pm:
Germany: Let’s start with the most obvious problem with your analysis: Germany isn't a nuclear power. And you think it could develop a nuclear force numerically capable of competing with the United States and Russia combined by When? Its military isn't on a scale with Russia's, let alone the US's. The US, thanks in part to Israel, has very sophisticated anti-missile technology, while Russia has the best surface to air missiles in the world, capable of operating over the horizon. I don't think China's military is yet at the level of Russia's. If the United States and Russia are allies, if a war happens anytime soon there is no one who wins against those two. Given time, China could catch up, maybe. A lot of time. Do you have any idea what it would take to catch up with the US alone? And England and France are on the American side? At the moment, the only country in the world that has success in war games at taking our multiple American aircraft carriers has been France. Unlike Germany, Great Britain and France are both nuclear powers. Significant ones. German ethos since WWII has been borderline antimilitaristic. They're good, but they're not militarily aggressive like they were. Too much fear of being like they used to be.
------An idea, once unthinkable, is gaining attention in European policy circles: a European Union nuclear weapons program. Under such a plan, France’s arsenal would be repurposed to protect the rest of Europe and would be put under a common European command, funding plan, defense doctrine, or some combination of the three. It would be enacted only if the Continent could no longer count on American protection.... discussion of a so-called “Eurodeterrent” has entered the mainstream — particularly in Germany, a country that would be central to any plan but where antinuclear sentiment is widespread.
-----German Chancellor Angela Merkel uttered a single sentence that speaks to how fundamentally President Donald Trump has reshaped -- and will continue to reshape -- the world and America's place in it. "The times when we could completely rely on others are, to an extent, over," Merkel said at a beer hall rally to support her campaign.
President Trump needs a historian who can advise him about the significance of European wars and how they lead to world wars. When he attacked NATO members for not paying their fair share criticized German automakers for selling millions of cars in the U.S., while U.S. automakers do not do nearly as well in Germany and called the Germans "bad, very bad," he apparently did not realize that he may be repeating the policies of WWI conquerors of Germany that eventually led to the rise of Adolf Hitler.
-------There were several characteristics which Germany possessed after the First World War which made them vulnerable to being manipulated by someone like Adolf Hitler. As in most nations, the economic factors of the time play a significant role in determining how a society will behave. Germany was economically devastated after a draining defeat in World War I. Due to the Versailles treaty, Germany was forced to pay incredibly sizeable reparations to France and Great Britain. In addition, the Versailles treaty, which many agreed was far too harsh, forced Germany to give up thirteen percent of its land. At first, Germany tried to recover from the war by way of social spending to battle the increasing unemployment rate--creating transportation projects, modernization of power plants and gas works.The elevating amounts of money which were used for social spending combined with plummeting revenues caused continuing deficits. Eventually, the municipal finance collapsed in 1930 as the revenue from income tax began to fall. Even with all of Germany's economic shortcomings, it could have still been possible to make reparation payments to the conquering nations if foreign countries had not placed protective tariffs on Germany's goods. With the income Germany could have gained by selling goods in foreign countries, for relatively low prices, reparation payments could have become feasible. The protective tariffs made this idea impossible and further depressed the German economy. Printing exaggerated amounts of money to make reparation payments caused Inflation to reach the point where millions of marks were worthless. Cartoons of the time depicted people with wheelbarrows full of money who could not buy a loaf of bread. "With the approach of world crisis foreign lenders withdrew capital and markets further closed against German imports" (Sweezy 8). The United States was an extremely significant example of this. When the U.S. was hit by the great depression they immediately sought to get the loans, which they had made to German, paid back. This, in addition to all of Germany's other problems, practically caused the German economy to collapse. With Germany at its weakest and most vulnerable point, Hitler took the opportunity to begin his ascent to power------------German Economy in the 1920s, By Daniel Castillo (author page), Dec. 2003 http://www.history.ucsb.edu/faculty/marcuse/classes/33d/projects/19...
When the world goes into World War III, Germany and its allies, which may include France and will probably be Iran and other Islamic countries, and China and North Korea, among others, will be a powerful opposition to the United States, England, and its NATO allies that have pulled out of the European Union and which by that time will include Russia.



Views: 77

Comment by Jonathan Wolfman on May 30, 2017 at 3:37am

In four months he has next-to-destroyed what Truman, Ike, JFK/LBJ, Nixon, Carter, Reagan, et.al., through Obama have done for Europe and for us as to mutual safety and the values of democracy. 

While I do not see a III, I know that the next president's work to avoid the worst has been made unnecessarily tougher. 

Comment by koshersalaami on May 30, 2017 at 6:53am

The French nuclear force is certainly significant, though there still isn't an obvious cause for a war. Germany has no reparations. Trump is objecting to Germany building cars in Mexico to export to the US and, frankly, he's right to object. On the other hand, German manufacturers also build cars within the US, like the BMW plant in South Carolina, and that's a two way street, because Ford builds in Europe, as I think GM does. 

In terms of the French nuclear force, the next issue is whether France would give up control of its nuclear forces. Don't bet on that. 

the main thing to understand here, though, is that there needs to be a cause for a world war. We don't have an obvious one.

By the way, and I am really surprised by this, Trump is enjoying one significant foreign policy success that is so far not really above the radar: He has an unusually good shot at an Israeli two-state solution. No, really. And it goes further: Arab governments have recently been telling Israelis at international conferences that they want normalized relations once this happens, and they're seeking out Israelis, which is pretty much unprecedented. The Arabs are saying specifically that they think Trump can do this. This could work because both the Arabs and the Israelis find Trump way preferable to Obama. Given his statements about Muslims, I wouldn't have thought so, but those ridiculous cruise missiles in Syria and other actions there have relieved the Sunni Arab world who were terrified of a disengaged United States. The Israelis like him because he's less tolerant of Iran and because when he went to see Abbas he really called him on inciting violence against the Israelis while claiming to be peaceful, but Abbas likes that he actually came to Palestine and is seriously engaged. The Saudis like the massive arms package Trump agreed to sell them and of course that he's less tolerant of Iran. 

I can't stand Trump, and I doubt what he's accomplishing is a result of deep strategic thinking, but he (possibly inadvertently) dealt himself a great hand. I hope Israel is listening. 

Comment by JMac1949 Today on May 30, 2017 at 8:17am

World War III has been going on since 1949 when the USSR detonated it's first nuclear weapon.  It is an endless struggle of proxy clients that have ranged from China to Korea, to Vietnam, to Iran, to Lebanon, to Israel, Jordon and Egypt, to Cuba, to Indonesia, India and Pakistan, to Bolivia, El Salvador and Nicaragua, Peru, Columbia, and Panama, to Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria.  So far no nukes and so war is good for business, invest your children and grandchildren.


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