A recent post by Ron Powell discussing the personal nature of the affect of Hurricane Harvey on members of his own family, as well as a comment by moki ikom about depletion of aquifers on ground level set me off on an search for projected Texas coastlines secondary to climate change.
That turned out to be harder than I had anticipated.
What I noticed was that there are articles about various changes in climate with strategies to address them, but no serious long term projections of changes in coastlines, or a synthesis of all of the various aspects of rising temperature, increase in storms, effects of flooding on groundwater or changes in cities in North America.
There are projections of the effect of rising temperatures on Texas over the next 100 years.
“Key Message: Risks to Coastal Aquifers and Wetlands
Sea level rise, storms and storm surges, and changes in surface and groundwater use patterns are expected to compromise the sustainability of coastal freshwater aquifers and wetlands. “
Seemingly paradoxically there are predicted to be both increases in precipitation in some areas and increase in drought in others. Precipitation will be unable to keep pace with aquifer withdrawal generally.
Economic damage is expected to be severe. Ironically, the worst areas of loss will be in the regions of the country where large numbers of people don’t believe in global warming. As Neil DeGrasse Tyson said about science, it's true whether you believe in it or not.
Climate change exhibits non-linear dynamics due to the complexity of features that affect it. Complexity theory says that because of the non-linear affects of various factors on climate, extreme changes may happen fairly rapidly and unexpectedly. In past geological periods there have been rapidly occurring ice ages due to the rapid change of the flow of the gulfstream and Japanese warm currents. The best projections of climate change are fairly linear and don’t take into account sudden changes.
Hurricane Harvey is reported to be over and above anything experienced in U.S. History. Climate change predicts that this will not be the last unforeseen and never observed natural disaster.
It seems ironic that perhaps the greatest cause of man made climate change sits a victim of its own device.