Robert Young's Blog – January 2013 Archive (9)

Data Fiddles, While Rome Burns

The Case-Shiller number is just out, at 5.5% up. More than expected, on a month-to-month basis. One might wonder how this might be happening, given that median income continues to fall. Just saying. Data tends to lag back as much as a year (Census data on median income, for example). Either the recovery is way better than reported data says, or the Banksters are fiddling mortgages again.

Added by Robert Young on January 29, 2013 at 8:06am — 1 Comment

Political Intelligence

Yet another oxymoron enters the blogosphere. As I've written a few times over the last few years, building a better mousetrap with databases and stats can be used in electioneering. While the DNC has been screwing the pooch for some time (2010 and 2012 were disasters at the state and local lever; 2014, thanks to those cycles and the fiddling being done by the Lunatic Right, will be more of the same), the Obama crew did a bang up job. You can find my post-mortems in the archives.

Today…

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Added by Robert Young on January 28, 2013 at 12:10pm — 2 Comments

Rotten to the Core

The entirety of the pundit class, both mainstream and fringe, have been weighing in on the meaning of Apple's disappointing quarterly yesterday.  This is old news, from the perspective of this endeavor:  I've been asserting for some time that Jobs/Apple has been pursuing a suicidal path.  Where once there was a somewhat iconoclastic computer company, is now a garden variety up-scale appliance maker.  The ElectroLux or Jenn-Air of the 21st century.  Just because there's a cpu running the…

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Added by Robert Young on January 24, 2013 at 10:53am — 4 Comments

Money Matters, Part 1

This time, I've assumed the obvious, and numbered the First installment without having written the second. But money matters, although not in the way the Lunatic Right (Friedmanites, Austrians, .1%ers) generally do. The purpose of currency is to oil the wheels of commerce. Adam Smith wrote something like that.

Yesterday's Times brought us three pieces on money, all making points mused on here over the past times.…

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Added by Robert Young on January 21, 2013 at 11:00am — 1 Comment

Send in the RAF

Most folks know that the RAF, in "The Battle of Britain", saved the country from the Germans. Most folks also know, certainly if they read this endeavor, that the Germans are winning today's battle to ruin Britain. The Germans have been on a blitzkrieg throughout the EuroZone to slay the victims of The Great Recession, I'll wager to solidify their winnings from the housing bubble. It's a fact that the Germans spent heavily on private sector housing speculation, particularly in Spain, which…

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Added by Robert Young on January 16, 2013 at 12:30pm — 4 Comments

Dee Feat is in Dee Flation, Part 25

The PPI is out this morning. Down again, by -.2%. What's curious, is that one of the bear ETFs that I follow is up more than 2% in pre-market as I type. Things may well work out differently during the trading day. But curious. Much as the Lunatic Right screams about the Inflation Invasion and Bond Vigilantes, Mr. Market knows that capital gains depends on a modicum of inflation to keep the economic engine purring along. Deflation really is worse than inflation, number for number.

The…

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Added by Robert Young on January 15, 2013 at 7:00am — 5 Comments

Scuba Diving in Arcania

If I were to be interested in scuba, I'm not, the Caribbean island of Arcania is where I would go to look for unusual and brightly colored specimens. Since actually going there is not on the agenda, a thought visit is required. This journey was inspired by news out today, that an obscure Fed research group had looked into The Great Recession.…

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Added by Robert Young on January 11, 2013 at 8:39pm — No Comments

Older Than Dirt

My Pappy, though steadfastly lower class, had a yen for "U.S. News & World Report", an organ of the Lunatic Right which was more than happy that he and his family (and all others similarly situated) remain lower class. Consume the necessities produced by American corporations, leaving the good stuff for the more deserving. Yahoo! has some deal with the progeny of US News to run feature articles. And today is such a day. Now, if the Lunatic Right were correct, then the idyllic wastelands…

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Added by Robert Young on January 10, 2013 at 6:34am — No Comments

The Way We Were

Well, it's New Year's Day, and here I sit in my drafty New England garret ready to contemplate the most significant opportunity last year in the intersecting worlds of macro-economics and quants.  The winner is obvious:  the continuation (from 2010) of the DNC's incompetence.  Ah, I bet you were thinking:  Obama won?  That was no surprise.  Given that he won by a larger margin than any one of the pundits predicted, including 538, his coattails were a tad motheaten.



2010 set in…

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Added by Robert Young on January 1, 2013 at 6:27pm — No Comments

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