If I were to be interested in scuba, I'm not, the Caribbean island of Arcania is where I would go to look for unusual and brightly colored specimens. Since actually going there is not on the agenda, a thought visit is required. This journey was inspired by news out today, that an obscure Fed research group had looked into The Great Recession.…Continue
Added by Robert Young on January 11, 2013 at 8:39pm — No Comments
My Pappy, though steadfastly lower class, had a yen for "U.S. News & World Report", an organ of the Lunatic Right which was more than happy that he and his family (and all others similarly situated) remain lower class. Consume the necessities produced by American corporations, leaving the good stuff for the more deserving. Yahoo! has some deal with the progeny of US News to run feature articles. And today is such a day. Now, if the Lunatic Right were correct, then the idyllic wastelands…Continue
Added by Robert Young on January 10, 2013 at 6:34am — No Comments
Well, it's New Year's Day, and here I sit in my drafty New England garret ready to contemplate the most significant opportunity last year in the intersecting worlds of macro-economics and quants. The winner is obvious: the continuation (from 2010) of the DNC's incompetence. Ah, I bet you were thinking: Obama won? That was no surprise. Given that he won by a larger margin than any one of the pundits predicted, including 538, his coattails were a tad motheaten.
2010 set in…
Added by Robert Young on January 1, 2013 at 6:27pm — No Comments
Your Good Mother has just figured out another situation you should listen to. The Gallup folks are not happy about being fingered as Romney Borgs, so now they're crying wolf. If the "aggregators" manage to get elections (and, by extension, other polling efforts such as used in, say, advertising) right, does this mean that pollsters will be put out of business, until there's only one left? Could be. …Continue
Added by Robert Young on December 26, 2012 at 3:17pm — No Comments
As Regular Reader should remember, I've been fascinated with Bermuda since my visit there a few years ago. Especially considering that I wasn't all that keen on going there, and that the boat ran through the remnants of hurricanes in both directions. The islands (plural when I was growing up and learning 4th grade geography) are quite pleasant.
What makes Bermuda fascinating to a Keynesian, is that it is a micro-USofA. It's economy, which was once based on its inherent…
Added by Robert Young on December 26, 2012 at 10:39am — No Comments
Who to blame for the continuing mess we're in? How far back down (or up, depending on one's point of view) the breadcrumb trail do we go to say, "this is where it all started?" Or, how did Jason manage to find Nicky in crowded, serpentine Tangier streets when she, somehow, tore apart a cellphone with her bare hands, but dropped the fragments in the first few steps she took? Hmmm?
How far back should we look?
Could be the Israelis: the U.S.'s fawning support while…
Added by Robert Young on December 23, 2012 at 12:30pm — No Comments
Financial services isn't the only field of endeavour where blind allegiance to quants leads to disaster. In fact, another area where disaster, induced by quant blindness, is far more common (although, from a macro-economic view, thankfully localized) is drug development. For those not paying attention to drugs, the process of taking a compound (either new or reformulated in some way) from inception of consumers is said to take a decade and $1 billion. For myself, most of the money goes to…Continue
Spend some time following R-bloggers, and each day, on average, is another posting detailing how to get rich with yet another "trading" algorithm/strategy. Never mind that Galbraith got it right decades ago: "Financial genius is a rising stock market". Today brings yet more evidence that he's right.
What's disappointing with today's piece: it…
Added by Robert Young on December 16, 2012 at 1:00pm — No Comments
To bend an old adage, "Apples to Apples, dust to dust". The share continues to fall, with nearly as many explanations as there are stock pundits. So, here's mine.
As the quote from Eccles says, consumers are the endpoint (to use a clinical trials metaphor). The problem for capitalists is, they want to kill labor (the Foxconn guy is on the march to replace all his workers with robots). If only one does that, then he makes a killing, at least in the short term. If they all do it,…
Added by Robert Young on December 14, 2012 at 10:40am — No Comments
(Picking up where I was when the boat went under...)
Well, the Consumer Price Index is out, and it's -.3%. That's right campers, the Koch Brothers are dancing in the streets. They gots themselves DEEflation. They must be so happy. Last PPI was -.2%. Keep this up, and they'll be making real money, for doing less than nothing with their moolah. Such a Country!
Added by Robert Young on December 14, 2012 at 7:17am — No Comments